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Perekonomian Inggris Makin Ambles, Inflasi Diprediksi Tembus 15 Persen Di Awal 2023

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Journalist Report, Mikael Dafit Adi Prasetyo

LONDON – UK inflation is expected to reach 15 percent in early 2023 driven by soaring energy prices.

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Ahead of the latest decision on interest rates by the UK’s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), thinktank Resolution Foundation said price pressures on inflation are likely to be stronger and last longer than previously thought.

Quoted from The Guardian, Thursday (4/8/2022) the Monetary Policy Committee estimates inflation will peak above 11 percent in October.

They expressed readiness to increase borrowing costs on Thursday (4/8/2022) despite signs that the economy is weakening.

Tim Moore, director of economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that reductions in consumer spending levels and efforts by businesses to contain spending due to rising inflation had combined to suppress demand across the service economy.

“The near-term outlook also looks weak, as new orders growth held near its lowest level in June and business optimism was the weakest since May 2020,” Moore said.

Meanwhile, The Resolution Foundation points to good news regarding inflation, as several commodities have experienced a decline in prices, one of which is oil. However, that is not the case for gases.

Therefore, the energy price limit in the UK, which was initially below 2,000 euros, is expected to rise to 3,500 euros.

“The outlook for inflation is highly uncertain, driven in large part by unpredictable gas prices, but changes over the last few months suggest that the UK central bank is expecting an inflation peak of potentially 15 per cent in early 2023.” said Jack Leslie, senior economist at the Resolution Foundation.

Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said that the strong post-pandemic recovery is coming to an end and the economy will face slower growth caused by rising inflation and labor shortages.

“Like other economies around the world, the UK economy is currently facing a number of challenges, with pre-existing structural challenges, further exacerbated by the pandemic and Russia’s war on Ukraine.” said Mathias Cormann, secretary general of the OECD.

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